The best time to buy a new iPhone was yesterday. That’s been the going wisdom for years, and today it’s just a statement of fact.Apple’s first foldable, the iPhone Duo, lands in India at Rs 2,99,900. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at Rs 1,64,900. Neither number is a shock. New phones get new prices, and we’d been told for months that this year’s would sting.The older iPhones going up wasn’t a surprise either. That was coming the moment Tim Cook earlier this year said it was. The iPhone 17 launched last year at Rs 82,900 and it’s Rs 99,900 now. The Air was Rs 1,19,900 and it’s Rs 1,49,900. Nothing about either phone changed overnight except the price.What nobody had priced in was how much of that increase would land here. Older iPhones in the US went up by a flat $100. The same phones in India went up by two and three times that.Some of that has a good reason behind it and some of it doesn’t. Either way, it lands differently here, because India spent the last five years moving in the opposite direction.
India was an expensive place to buy an iPhone, until it wasn’t
India didn’t get the first iPhone at all. The 2007 model never launched here. What we got, in 2008, was the iPhone 3G at Rs 31,000, about three times what an American was paying for the same handset.Ten years on, not much had changed. The iPhone X came in at Rs 89,000 in 2017 while the US paid $999, which worked out to something near Rs 64,000 at the time. A quarter of the Indian price was tax, duty and the cost of getting the box into the country. Duty went up twice in those years. If you wanted an iPhone you got it at duty free, or you asked a cousin flying back from Dubai, or you didn’t get one.Then Apple started building them here and the maths changed. First the SE, then the vanilla models, until Pros were rolling out within weeks of a Cupertino launch. The base price stopped climbing. The iPhone 12 launched at Rs 79,900 in 2020, and so did the 13, the 14, the 15 and the 16. The Pros were being priced with some restraint too. The 16 Pro actually launched below the 15 Pro, at Rs 1,19,900. The 16e came in under all of them at Rs 59,900. The stores opened in Mumbai and Delhi. No cost EMI turned Rs 79,900 into a monthly number many never thought twice about.Five years of that, and the iPhone stopped being something many saved up for. It worked, too. India moved into Apple’s top handful of markets by shipments, the sort of place the company started naming on earnings calls instead of grouping into “rest of world”.Apple’s position here is secure enough. What moved this week were the prices underneath it. The cheapest new iPhone you can buy today is Rs 20,000 above where the entry model sat eighteen months ago, and the 17e alone is up Rs 15,000 since March. It isn’t even six months old yet.
A good part of this has nothing to do with Apple
A fair bit of the gap is just tax and duty. Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint Research, breaks the Duo’s India price into a stack. Around 17 percent import duty. Another 18 percent GST. By his estimate, a further 5 to 6 percent from currency movement. That’s past 40 percent before Apple has decided anything about margin, and the Duo takes the full hit, because it won’t be assembled here for a while and lands as a finished import.That’s how a $1,999 phone reaches you at Rs 2,99,900, and Rs 4,49,900 if you want the 2TB one. It’s also why the iPhones made here sit much closer to their dollar price. The 17 Pro was $1,099 in the US and Rs 1,34,900 here. The 18 Pro is $1,199 and Rs 1,64,900. Those are gaps you can at least follow. The Duo’s is nothing like it.That stack also explains why a dollar increase never arrives here as a dollar increase. Duty and GST are percentages, so they scale with whatever Apple adds at the top. A $100 rise is roughly Rs 8,800 to begin with, and by the time GST has been applied, and duty too if the phone is imported, it reaches a shelf here at somewhere between Rs 10,000 and Rs 12,000. Every cost increase Apple absorbs globally gets amplified on the way into this market, and this year there were a lot of them.None of that is new, though. The same stack was in place last year, and last year it still put the iPhone 17 on shelves at Rs 82,900.Duty explains the level, but what it doesn’t explain is the jump.What moved is the memory, and Apple did warn us. Back in June, Tim Cook sat down for an interview with one purpose: to say that price rises were coming and couldn’t be avoided. He wouldn’t say which products or by how much. He called what’s happening to memory a hundred-year flood, and said that in forty years around the electronics supply chain he’d never seen anything like it. People took the hint. The advice going around ever since has been to buy whatever Apple product you were planning to buy, immediately.He was talking about the one component nobody thinks much about when they buy an iPhone. RAM used to get cheaper every cycle, reliably, for four decades. That’s stopped. Supply chain estimates put 16GB of smartphone DRAM at roughly $42 in mid 2025 and roughly $181 a year later.The reason is AI, which by now you could have guessed. The three companies that make almost all the world’s memory also make the high-bandwidth memory that AI servers run on, and that business pays better, ships in bigger volumes and comes with multiyear contracts. Apple used to have enough leverage to squeeze those suppliers down to almost nothing. Now it waits in line like everybody else. Ternus spent yesterday’s keynote arguing that the iPhone is already the best AI device anybody has built, and the same AI is why it costs what it does.Everyone is passing it on. The Pixel 11 came in at $899 against $799 for the Pixel 10, and at Rs 89,999 here, with every model in the family costing more than the Pixel 10 it replaced. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra sits at about Rs 2 lakh and the Fold 8 at Rs 1,79,999, the most Samsung has ever charged for a foldable in India. Anything with a chip in it has been getting dearer all year: laptops, consoles, cars, the lot. Apple was late to it the way it was late to foldables, and it won’t be early to the recovery either. Memory fabs take years to build, and most forecasts don’t have supply catching demand before late 2027.
The rest of it is a decision Apple made
Run that multiplier on the iPhone 17 and you get to about Rs 12,000. The price went up by Rs 17,000. On the Air it went up by Rs 30,000. Tax and duty do not get you there.Prabhu Ram, who heads the industry research group at CyberMedia Research, puts the rest down to a list of things that have nothing to do with components: the rupee, local tax structure, channel economics, and Apple’s own reading of what India’s affluent buyers are willing to spend. The channel part matters more here than most people assume. Apple sells the bulk of its phones in the US directly. Here it moves through distributors, large format retail and thousands of smaller stores, and every one of those margins sits inside the price on the sticker.Then there’s the last variable, which is Apple’s judgement. It has never converted its American price and printed the answer. It prices each market on what it thinks that market will pay, and it has seemingly decided we’ll pay quite a lot.None of this works without the financing, though. The Duo comes to about Rs 48,800 a month across six no-cost instalments and the 18 Pro to about Rs 26,300, and the monthly figure is what the people buying these phones actually respond to. It also means the Rs 30,000 that went onto the Air reaches a buyer as Rs 5,000 a month, which is far easier to absorb than it looks on a price list.That last one is the explanation you’ll have heard for a decade now, and it keeps being the right one. India’s aspirational class, the way Ram reads it, is still confident about discretionary spending, particularly on things that work as premium lifestyle statements. That gives Apple room at the top of the range it doesn’t have in most markets.The lineup shows it better than any single price does. The Duo isn’t here to sell in volume. It sits above the Pro Max as a new ultra premium tier, a halo that lifts the average selling price of everything below it, and Pathak expects it to grow India’s foldable segment by value long before it does by volume. The Pro line has taken a 20 to 22 percent increase, and that’s where the memory cost is actually being passed on.Then there’s what Apple hasn’t done. There’s no standard iPhone 18 this year. That phone, the 18e and a second Air are all expected around March. The base iPhone 17 went up instead of coming down the way last year’s model always does. So the usual move, buying the previous phone at a discount, isn’t on the table until spring. Anyone who would have made that move and still wants a current iPhone gets pointed at the Pro, and the Pro is what lifts the average.None of which means Apple sells less here in rupee terms. Pathak expects volumes to slip while revenue keeps climbing, a low single digit decline in units against 6 to 7 percent growth in value. The mix does it. Apple grew 2 percent year on year between January and July, the Pro series grew 32 percent over the same stretch, and Pro’s share of Apple’s India sales is on track to go from 11 percent last year to about 15 percent by the end of this one.A lot rides on the festive quarter now, on trade-in schemes and on older iPhones continuing to sell, the iPhone 15 included. Pathak also sees the refurbished market growing faster than anyone had planned for, and that’s hard to argue with. Every buyer pushed up the ladder leaves a phone behind.There’s even a case that Apple comes out ahead of its rivals, because budget and mid-range Android makers have nowhere near the margin to absorb a shock like this one. Their prices have gone up too, and some of the cheapest models have stopped being made at all. When the phone you bought because it was cheap isn’t cheap anymore, an iPhone stops looking so far away.For people who aspire — once again it has become a strong aspiration — to buy Apple’s latest shiny toys, the choice is increasingly about how to keep an iPhone within reach. You hold on to one longer, trade it in, buy refurbished or stretch the payments. None makes the phone itself cheaper.Apple can still earn more from India even if it sells fewer phones, but that is a different growth story from bringing more Indians into its ecosystem. The festive season will test how much room remains between wanting an iPhone and being able to afford one. Instalments can soften the price of admission. They cannot indefinitely disguise how much higher Apple has set the entry fee.
Leave a Reply