BJD joins INDIA bloc SIR protest, to skip Odisha bandh: Patnaik’s balancing act

BJP decimated Naveen Patnaik’s party in the 2024 elections

NEW DELHI: Is Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) cosying up to the opposition’s INDIA bloc? On Tuesday, the BJD joined the opposition coalition’s protest march against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar in the national capital. The BJD leaders, however, were quick to clarify that their participation in the protest did not mean the BJD was joining the opposition coalition.Senior BJD leader and chief whip in Odisha assembly Pramila Mallik explained the party’s support for the protest march and said, “Naveen Patnaik noticed that the CEC had committed irregularities in the SIR process and EVMs and felt that action should be taken against Gyanesh Kumar for misleading the voters and youth of India and mismanaging the voter list. Since the INDIA bloc’s rally was organised against the CEC, the BJD MPs joined the march.”BJD parliamentary party leader in Rajya Sabha Manas Mangaraj, who joined the opposition protest march, had echoed similar stand on Tuesday. “The BJD has maintained equal distance from both the INDIA bloc and the NDA. However, as a responsible political party committed to protecting democratic institutions and the integrity of the electoral process, the BJD will participate in today’s programme as directed by our leader Naveen Patnaik,” he had said before joining the protest.Mallik also clarified that neither the regional party nor its MPs, who joined the protest march, had joined any political group, and that the party still adhered to its equidistance policy.Interestingly, Mallik, who had earlier announced that the BJD will support INDIA bloc’s Odisha bandh call on October 8, clarified that her party will not participate in the opposition bloc’s agitation in the state. “The BJD is not part of any particular bloc and will not support any programme by any group,” the BJD leader said. She also clarified that the INDIA bloc had not held any discussions with the BJD.The 12-hour bandh, called by nine parties of the INDIA bloc for Thursday, is also demanding the resignation of Odisha school and mass education minister Nityananda Gond over alleged errors in school textbooks.

Decoding BJD’s middle path

Senior journalist and political analyst Jatindra Dash feels the BJD is indulging in political posturing to strike a balance.“They are trying to demonstrate that they are maintaining an equal distance from both the blocs. They don’t want to appear hostile to either of the two coalitions. But then, they also don’t want to give the Congress in the state an opportunity to say that BJD did not oppose the BJP on allegations of vote chori. That explains why they joined the Delhi protest but will keep away from the agitation in the state,” Jatindra Dash says.“The BJD will play the wait-and-watch game. If at any stage they see the BJP weakening, they will come out openly against the saffron party and, if needed, even associate with the INDIA bloc. But it is unlikely that any such thing will happen in the near future,” he adds.“The BJD still has a strong organisation, and if there is anti-incumbency against the BJP government in Odisha, Naveen Patnaik will gain as the Congress in the state is nowhere in the picture as of now,” Jatindra Dash says.That perhaps explains why the BJD is still walking the middle path in politics.The BJD has long maintained a neutral political stand by staying equidistant from both the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA bloc. However, on several occasions in the past, Naveen Patnaik’s party has bailed out the Narendra Modi-led NDA government on key legislations in Parliament.Some of the initiatives of the Modi government since 2014 that got BJD’s backing include:

When faced with criticism from the opposition parties for helping the BJP, the BJD cited national interest to justify support to these Central legislations. Jatindra Dash says BJD has always chosen the politics of non-confrontation and balance while strongly safeguarding its regional identity.“BJD is a regional party and they appear to have some compulsions. They don’t want to be seen as confrontational with the party that is in power at the Centre. Also, initially the BJD leadership’s assumption would have been that the BJP may renew its coalition with the party. That perhaps explains why the BJD backed several key legislations of the Modi government,” Jatindra says to explain Naveen Patnaik’s support to the NDA.

Can BJD bounce back?

However, the BJD paid a heavy political price for this support as the BJP decimated Naveen Patnaik’s party in the 2024 elections – both in the Lok Sabha and the assembly elections.In the 2024 assembly election, the BJP won 78 of the 147 seats in Odisha assembly, while the BJD got 51, the Congress 14, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) 1, and Independents 3. In the Lok Sabha election, the saffron party won 20 of the 21 seats in Odisha, while the Congress took 1.BJD leaders have cited the party’s vote share of 40.22 per cent in the assembly elections against the BJP’s 40.07 per cent to claim that Naveen Patnaik’s popularity remains intact and the party will bounce back.However, the fact remains that in the last two years, BJD has lost several of its prominent leaders and MPs to the BJP. In what can be described as a late rearguard action, Naveen Patnaik in June this year convened a meeting of party leaders who unsuccessfully contested the 2024 Odisha assembly elections.

The meeting lasted nearly three hours and saw the BJD supremo interact directly with more than 70 leaders, listening to their feedback, concerns and suggestions regarding the party’s future course of action.The road ahead for the BJD in Odisha remains full of challenges. Naveen Patnaik won five consecutive elections, ruled the state for 24 long years before the BJP ended his winning streak. He still enjoys popularity in the state and has control over the organization. For Naveen Patnaik and his BJD the challenge would be to ensure that they don’t lose relevance and instead function as a strong opposition, not ceding any space to the Congress.