NEW DELHI: Crude oil prices fell below the $75-per-barrel mark on Wednesday as the Strait of Hormuz reopened but are yet to return to the pre-conflict levels of $65-70 a barrel.While Brent crude traded at nearly $73.4 per barrel at the time of filing this report, the Indian oil basket — a blend of sweet-grade Brent dated and sour-grade Oman and Dubai average crude — was priced at $74.34 a barrel, less than half its peak level during the conflict, partly due to a change in the mix.Both Brent and the Indian oil basket averaged $65-70 per barrel in the run-up to the US-Iran conflict that broke out on Feb 28. At the peak of the conflict, Brent rose to nearly $114 a barrel, while the Indian basket touched $150 due to a surge in West Asian crude prices, spot purchases by Indian refiners at high premiums, and increased freight and insurance costs.The Indian crude basket composition, which stood at 78.71% sour crude (Oman and Dubai average) and 21.21% Brent dated during 2025-26 through Feb, shifted to 38.98% and 61.02%, respectively, in March as refiners diversified sourcing after West Asia supplies were disrupted.A senior refinery executive said Brent futures reflect crude deliveries over a longer timeframe, while the Indian oil basket captures the actual prices paid for cargo. Despite reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, S&P Global Energy said a full recovery in production and trade flows may take time. It added that global oil inventories are expected to continue declining through June and July, potentially renewing upward pressure on prices.“Prices will stay volatile. Our expectation is that Brent, which was around $76, may move to the $80-$90 range. Prices could fall to $65 or rise to $100 depending on how events unfold,” said Jim Burkhard, head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility at S&P Global Energy. JP Morgan has lowered its average Brent price outlook for the last two quarters, and expects Brent to average $86 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
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