Why Ukraine’s biggest attacks could make Putin even more dangerous: The ‘drowning man’ warning

Strains on the Russian economy could leave Putin behaving like a “drowning man” — a leader who becomes more dangerous as his position weakens (Photo credit: AP)

Ukraine has dramatically expanded its long-range strikes inside Russia, targeting military-industrial facilities in what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says is a campaign to force Moscow to end the war. Yet while Kyiv’s growing ability to hit deep inside Russian territory is reshaping the battlefield, analysts warn that the broader strategic picture may still favour Vladimir Putin, particularly when it comes to Europe’s long-term security.Ukraine on Saturday claimed responsibility for a strike on the Titan-Barrikady industrial complex in Volgograd, a key defence facility that manufactures equipment for Russia’s Iskander missile system. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missiles hit the site, describing it as a major producer of artillery systems and specialised military equipment.Volgograd governor Andrei Bocharov confirmed an attack on an industrial enterprise in the Krasnooktyabrsky district, saying 10 people were injured and production facilities sustained damage, though he did not identify the company.The strike followed what Moscow described as one of Ukraine’s largest drone assaults since Russia launched its full-scale invasion more than four years ago. Russia’s defence ministry said air defences intercepted 660 Ukrainian drones over a dozen regions, occupied Crimea and surrounding waters. Zelenskyy has also ordered what he called a “40-day influence operation”, signalling a sustained campaign of deep strikes designed to increase pressure on the Kremlin.However, Russia continued its own attacks. Overnight, a Russian drone strike killed a 66-year-old man in Ukraine’s Sumy region after hitting a private home, according to regional authorities.

Ukraine is raising the cost of war — but Russia remains Europe’s biggest security challenge

Ukraine’s strategy is becoming increasingly clear: damage Russia’s defence industry, reduce its oil revenues and bring the consequences of war closer to ordinary Russians. Recent attacks have increasingly focused on military factories, missile production facilities and energy infrastructure hundreds of kilometres from the front line.Some observers believe the campaign is beginning to have an effect. In a recent Foreign Policy analysis, historian Peter Frankopan argued that Ukraine’s expanding drone operations are inflicting military, economic and psychological pressure on Russia. He wrote that repeated attacks on energy infrastructure, mounting casualties and growing strains on the Russian economy could leave Putin behaving like a “drowning man” — a leader who becomes more dangerous as his position weakens. Frankopan warned that rather than accepting setbacks, the Kremlin could respond with further military escalation against Ukraine and renewed threats towards Europe.Yet other experts caution against assuming that battlefield pressure will fundamentally weaken Russia’s long-term military power.Writing in Foreign Affairs, military analyst Michael Kofman argued that Russia remains Europe’s principal security threat regardless of how the war in Ukraine eventually ends. Although Moscow has suffered enormous losses in personnel and equipment, Kofman says Russia has continued expanding its armed forces, increased defence production and adapted to new forms of warfare, particularly drone operations.He estimates Russia could rebuild enough military capability within five to seven years to once again pose a serious challenge to NATO, while remaining capable of limited military pressure even sooner. Rather than rebuilding the same army that entered Ukraine in 2022, Russia is expected to field a larger force combining traditional artillery with extensive drone units and long-range strike capabilities.For Europe, that presents a difficult reality. Ukraine may be succeeding in forcing the war onto Russian soil, but analysts argue that this does not automatically diminish the long-term threat Moscow poses. Instead, Kyiv’s latest offensive may signal a new phase of the conflict in which Russia is under greater pressure than before, yet remains powerful enough to shape Europe’s security for years to come — and potentially more unpredictable as that pressure grows.