NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA government have had several firsts to its credit in the last 12 years of its rule. On Friday, it added another first to that list. However, this was one “first” which the government may not be very happy about. For the first time since 2014, when PM Modi came to power, his government failed to pass a bill in Parliament. This was a move that could have been avoided. So the question is weather it was a part of the strategy or just poor planning.
A vote meant to be lost?
From the outset, it was clear that the government would struggle to secure the roughly 360 votes needed for passage. Even with full NDA support and backing from a few fence-sitters, the numbers simply did not add up.Yet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah signalled during the debate in Lok Sabha that the intention was not just legislative success, but political positioning.By calling for a vote, the government ensured that every MP’s stance would be recorded. In a highly polarised political environment, that list becomes a powerful campaign tool.This is what BJP leaders described as the battle of “neeyat” (intent).
“We don’t want credit. I give you a blank cheque for claiming credit on passage of women quota bill. If you want me to use the word ‘guarantee’, I use the word ‘guarantee’. If you want me to make a promise, I use the word ‘promise’. Because if the intention is clear, there is no need to play games with words,” PM Modi told Lok Sabha during the debate.Even in defeat, the government could claim it had done its part to push a reform, while shifting the spotlight onto those who opposed it.In fact, after the bill was defeated, parliamentary affairs minister Kiren Rijiju told the House that the opposition lost a historic opportunity to honour the country’s women but the Modi government’s struggle to give rights to women will continue.“We will not take rest till we ensure that the country’s women get reservation in legislatures,” he said.
The timing matters
The timing of the bill was also important. With assembly elections scheduled in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the move is likely to help BJP in shaping the political narrative well in advance.Some believe the bill would have relieved pressure to grant another OBC quota, given that “social justice” issues have become a red rag for BJP’s social base of upper castes, as was evident from their incendiary reaction to UGC guidelines.The picture is straightforward: the BJP backed a bill that would eventually ensure 33% reservation for women in legislatures, while opposition parties blocked it.Amit Shah made this explicit during his reply, warning that those who voted against the bill would have to answer to women voters.After the voting, Shah specifically blamed “Congress, TMC, DMK, and Samajwadi Party” for not allowing its passage.He said after the bill was defeated, the opposition parties were celebrating and raising victory cries which is beyond imagination and condemnable.“Now, the women of the country will not get the 33 per cent reservation in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, which was their right. The Congress and its allies have done this not for the first time, but repeatedly. Their mindset is neither in the interest of women nor of the country,” he said in a post on X in Hindi.Shah said this “insult to the women of the country will not stop here but will travel far and wide”.“The opposition will have to face the wrath of women not only in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, but at every level, in every election, and at every place,” he said.Meanwhile, BJP sources told TOI that opposition’s “charges were exposed as lies. That opposition did not budge despite Amit Shah’s offer to write a guarantee about South’s share in the law showed they had manufactured a conspiracy.”For the BJP, the vote provides a ready-made contrast: intent versus obstruction.
The delimitation factor
At the heart of the controversy lies the structure of the bill itself. It was not a standalone women’s reservation measure, but part of a larger package linked to delimitation.The proposed amendment sought to increase the strength of the Lok Sabha from 543 to a maximum of 850 seats. The 33% reservation for women was tied to this expanded House, to be implemented after a fresh delimitation exercise based on updated population data.This is where the opposition drew the line.Parties such as the Congress, DMK and Trinamool Congress argued that delimitation based on population would disproportionately affect southern states, which have seen slower population growth compared to the Hindi heartland. They accused the government of using women’s reservation as a cover for a politically sensitive restructuring of parliamentary representation.By bundling the two issues, the government effectively forced a binary choice. Supporting the bill meant accepting the delimitation framework; opposing it risked being labelled anti-women.Lok Sabha leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi in a post on X wrote: “The amendment bill has fallen. They used an unconstitutional trick to break the Constitution in the name of women. India has seen it. INDIA has stopped it.”Rahul further said, “I want to tell PM that if he wants women’s reservation, he should bring 2023 law and entire opposition will support it. We clearly said that this is not a women’s bill but an attempt to change India’s electoral structure.”
Alliance math on display
The vote also offered a glimpse into the current state of parliamentary alliances. If not anything, with the voting, the BJP was able to test the strength of its own party and allies and at the same time, also to test the waters in the opposition camp.While the BJP’s own strength in the Lok Sabha is 240, the NDA managed to secure 298 votes, indicating that its allies largely remained on board. This suggests that the coalition, at least for now, is intact and responsive to the BJP’s legislative push.However, the government was unable to attract sufficient support from opposition parties or induce abstentions that could have lowered the effective majority threshold.Regional parties like the YSR Congress Party and the Biju Janata Dal were closely watched.In that sense, the vote functioned as a litmus test — not just of strength, but of reach.
The safety net of the 2023 law
Even as the 2026 bill headed towards defeat, the government moved to ensure that the broader objective of women’s reservation was not entirely derailed.In a significant procedural step, it re-notified the 2023 Women’s Reservation Act in the Gazette during the debate. This earlier law provides for 33% reservation in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, but ties its implementation to a future Census and delimitation exercise.By doing so, the government created a fallback. Even if the new amendment failed, which eventually did, the legal framework for reservation would remain intact.The opposition, however, dismissed this as a face-saving exercise, arguing that the government was aware of its lack of numbers and was attempting to manage the optics of defeat.
What the defeat means
With the Constitution Amendment Bill failing, the government has decided not to move related legislation, including the Delimitation Bill and amendments concerning Union Territories.For now, the implementation of women’s reservation remains tied to the 2023 law, which itself depends on processes that are yet to be completed. This leaves timelines uncertain and the issue politically alive.But beyond the legislative outcome, the political consequences are already unfolding.The BJP is expected to use the vote aggressively in its campaign messaging, portraying the opposition as having blocked a key reform. For opposition parties, the challenge will be to explain their stance without appearing to oppose women’s representation. They will have to focus on the “disadvantage” of the delimitation process.In the end, the bigger picture is not about the fact that the bill failed. It is about why it was moved despite that certainty.By doing so, the BJP government seems to have shifted the centre of gravity from inside Parliament to outside it, where votes are ultimately won or lost.Now, whether it eventually helps the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections and the 2029 Lok Sabha polls or not will be interesting to watch.
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